Leading Financial Services Firm, KGI Securities Advises Which Thai Hotel Stocks Will Do Well

Thailand’s listed hotel sector is expected to enjoy stronger momentum over the coming quarters after leading financial services firm KGI Securities (Thailand) issued an upbeat assessment of the industry, forecasting improving earnings, stronger tourism demand, and better operating conditions for several of the country’s largest hotel groups. KGI, part of the wider KGI Group headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan, is one of the Asia-Pacific region’s prominent financial services companies, providing stock brokerage, investment banking, wealth management, and derivatives trading services through operations across Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand.

According to the latest market outlook, KGI expects the five major hotel operators under its research coverage to deliver combined core earnings of approximately THB 3.85 billion during the second quarter of 2026, representing a modest increase of 1.5 percent compared with the same period last year while surging by an impressive 46.8 percent from the previous quarter. This Thailand Hotel News report highlights that the sharp sequential improvement is expected to be driven primarily by Minor International Public Company Limited (MINT), whose European hotel portfolio is entering its traditional high season. Despite continued challenges arising from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, KGI believes the sector is benefiting from a relatively low earnings base in Thailand, allowing operators to post gradual year-on-year improvements.

Strong Performers Expected Across Major Hotel Companies

Among the companies covered by KGI, Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL) is forecast to record the strongest year-on-year earnings growth, with core profits expected to increase by approximately 15 percent. Asset World Corporation (AWC) is projected to achieve earnings growth of around 11 percent, while The Erawan Group (ERW) is anticipated to post a 10 percent increase.

Not every operator is expected to perform equally well. S Hotels and Resorts (SHR) is forecast to report a core loss during the quarter as a result of softer operating conditions across both Thailand and the Maldives. Nevertheless, KGI believes that lower financing costs across the sector will help offset some of the pressure created by mixed revenue per available room (RevPAR) performance and operating margin challenges.

Recovery Expected to Accelerate During the Second Half of 2026

Looking beyond the second quarter, KGI anticipates that the hotel sector’s operating performance will strengthen considerably during the third quarter of 2026. Revenue per available room is expected to improve from negative growth recorded in the second quarter to either flat or even double-digit gains depending on the operator and market.

Thailand is expected to lead the recovery as tourism demand strengthens further. KGI forecasts that both Asset World Corporation and Central Plaza Hotel could achieve approximately 10 percent year-on-year RevPAR growth during the third quarter. Meanwhile, The Erawan Group and Minor International are projected to generate mid-single-digit RevPAR increases as visitor arrivals from Europe and the Middle East continue to recover.

In the Maldives, improving airline capacity and the gradual normalization of international flight schedules are expected to support hotel performance. KGI believes these developments could allow both Minor International and S Hotels and Resorts to achieve flat to double-digit RevPAR growth, providing additional support for earnings recovery later in the year.

Government Support and Peak Season to Boost Performance

KGI also expects earnings momentum to strengthen further during the fourth quarter of 2026, traditionally the strongest period for Thailand’s tourism and hospitality industry. Seasonal travel demand, a busy calendar of events, and ongoing government tourism promotion measures are all expected to contribute to stronger hotel occupancy rates and higher room revenues.

Should second-quarter earnings meet current expectations, combined first-half core earnings for the sector would reach approximately THB 6.48 billion. This would account for nearly 39.5 percent of KGI’s full-year earnings forecast of THB 16.4 billion, suggesting there may still be room for additional upside if tourism trends continue improving during the remainder of the year.

Reflecting this increasingly positive outlook, KGI has upgraded its valuation multiples for the hotel sector, increasing target prices by between 6 percent and 13 percent while maintaining its overall “Overweight” recommendation. The brokerage continues to identify The Erawan Group and Central Plaza Hotel as its preferred investment choices, while also upgrading Asset World Corporation to an “Outperform” rating. Minor International also retains its “Outperform” recommendation, whereas S Hotels and Resorts remains rated “Neutral” due to ongoing operational challenges.

Market analysts caution that risks remain, including weaker-than-expected international tourism demand, rising operating expenses, and any renewed geopolitical uncertainty that could disrupt travel flows. Even so, KGI’s latest outlook reflects growing confidence that Thailand’s hotel sector is entering a stronger phase of recovery, supported by improving international visitor numbers, easing external pressures, lower financing costs, and a favourable seasonal backdrop. If these trends continue over the coming months, many of Thailand’s leading listed hotel companies could be well positioned to deliver stronger financial performances, reinforcing investor confidence in one of the country’s most important tourism-related industries.

For more on KGI Securities Thailand, visit:

https://www.kgieworld.co.th/corporate