Key points
- Analysts see core profit rising to THB 664 million, a year-on-year uptick of around 2 % but, crucially, a dramatic 250 % jump compared with the previous quarter, underscoring renewed momentum in the hotel sector as travel rebounds.
- While advance bookings for the first quarter of 2026 already signal double-digit RevPAR gains in Thailand and the Maldives, food and beverage revenue at CENTEL is projected to face minor headwinds, with a small 2 % year-on-year contraction.
- With hotel operations constituting approximately 72 % of the company’s total revenue, the outlook for CENTEL remains closely tied to the travel sector’s health, which has shown remarkable resilience as global travel restrictions continue to ease and international interest in Thailand’s resorts and urban destinations returns.
Thailand Hotel News: Surge in Hotel Profit Eyes CENTEL 4Q25 Boom
Krungsri Securities (KSS) has delivered a bullish forecast for Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL), projecting a stronger-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 that could solidify the company’s positioning as a travel and hospitality leader. Analysts see core profit rising to THB 664 million, a year-on-year uptick of around 2 % but, crucially, a dramatic 250 % jump compared with the previous quarter, underscoring renewed momentum in the hotel sector as travel rebounds. This Thailand Hotel News report underscores that hotel revenue is central to this growth, up an estimated 13 % from a year earlier, driven by higher revenue per available room (RevPAR) supported by rising occupancy across CENTEL’s core markets, including Thailand and the Maldives.
Image Credit: Centara Hotels and Resorts
Hotel Segment RevPAR Drives Growth
In an upbeat assessment, KSS highlights the particularly strong performance of CENTEL’s Maldives properties, where RevPAR is forecast to leap 48 % year-on-year as occupancy surges and newly opened resorts attract more visitors. This spike contrasts with the more modest but still respectable 6 % RevPAR increase anticipated for CENTEL’s Thai hotels, where renovations and full reopenings of key properties outside Bangkok have helped fuel demand. Japan operations are also expected to contribute, with an approximate 7 % rise in RevPAR, reflecting broader regional travel recovery.
While advance bookings for the first quarter of 2026 already signal double-digit RevPAR gains in Thailand and the Maldives, food and beverage revenue at CENTEL is projected to face minor headwinds, with a small 2 % year-on-year contraction. Same-store sales appear slightly weaker in the fourth quarter, but sequential improvement is expected as operations stabilize and cost-management initiatives take hold. Even with these headwinds, overall earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are anticipated to strengthen to nearly 30 %, as revenue expansion more than offsets expenditure pressures.
Strategic Upgrades and Earnings Outlook
Reflecting the brighter outlook, Krungsri Securities has lifted its earnings forecasts for CENTEL through 2027 by roughly 9 % to 14 %, lifting expectations for 2026 core profit to THB 2.099 billion — about a 23 % increase on the previous year. This upgrade is firmly tied to the hotel segment’s rebound, particularly where international travel has returned with force. In Thailand, KSS predicts a 7 % RevPAR rise next year, anchored by expanding inbound tourism and renewed meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions (MICE) activity, especially in Bangkok. Meanwhile, properties in Japan are expected to maintain growth, albeit at a slower pace, as the market adjusts post-Expo 2025.
Image Credit: Centara Hotels and Resorts
Despite expectations of growth, analysts caution that the recovery isn’t risk-free. A sharper than forecasted drop in tourism arrivals could temper earnings, especially if international travel falters or if new waves of pandemic-related restrictions emerge. Still, forward bookings and early 2026 data point to robust demand that should help CENTEL and peers outperform more cautious sector forecasts.
Market Reaction and Strategic Positioning
Following these upbeat projections, KSS reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating on CENTEL’s stock, increasing the target price to THB 43 per share from THB 37.50, citing both valuation appeal and strategic positioning to benefit from Thailand’s ongoing tourism resurgence. With hotel operations constituting approximately 72 % of the company’s total revenue, the outlook for CENTEL remains closely tied to the travel sector’s health, which has shown remarkable resilience as global travel restrictions continue to ease and international interest in Thailand’s resorts and urban destinations returns.
The projected fourth-quarter gains and revised forecasts signal a potential earnings flightpath that could outpace broader market expectations, offering investors a compelling narrative of recovery and growth. With global travel patterns normalizing and domestic tourism strengthening, CENTEL is positioned to capitalize on sustained demand across its diversified hotel footprint. The optimism around CENTEL’s future financial trajectory also reflects broader confidence in Thailand’s hospitality industry, which remains a cornerstone of economic recovery and international engagement.
For more details, visit: https://investor.centarahotelsresorts.com/th
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